After nearly two years of global liner companies diverting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, the container shipping industry is beginning to show its first signs of strategic shift.

Recent industry developments indicate that French shipping giant CMA CGM is preparing to become the first major carrier to cautiously test a return to the Red Sea–Suez Canal route. While no full-scale resumption has been officially announced, this move is widely regarded as a critical signal that the industry’s risk assessment of the region may be entering a new phase.

Since late 2023, the Red Sea corridor has been considered a high-risk zone following repeated security incidents. Major shipping lines diverted Asia–Europe mainline services around southern Africa, significantly extending transit times but ensuring a relatively stable safety environment. What began as an emergency workaround gradually evolved into the industry’s default operating model.

CMA CGM’s latest positioning, however, suggests that this default may no longer be permanent.

Despite this development, the industry remains highly cautious. There is no broad consensus on a full return to Red Sea transits. Most major carriers continue to emphasize that any resumption will depend on verified guarantees of crew safety, vessel security, and insurance coverage availability. Even if CMA CGM proceeds with trial sailings, the market is expected to experience a prolonged “gray testing period” rather than an immediate, wholesale shift back to normal routing.

The implications of a potential reopening are significant.

A stabilized Red Sea route could shorten global transit times, re-balance vessel deployment on the Asia–Europe trade lane, and ease pressure on congested transshipment hubs. At the same time, a transitional phase where multiple routing strategies coexist may introduce new operational complexity, requiring careful planning and flexible logistics coordination.

For global shippers and logistics providers, this development represents both opportunity and uncertainty.

At this stage, it is not advisable for businesses to make aggressive adjustments based solely on expectations of a rapid Red Sea reopening. A more prudent approach is to closely monitor pilot sailings by leading carriers, observe changes in insurance market conditions, and track the evolution of naval escort and regional security arrangements.

From a broader perspective, the Red Sea route is unlikely to shift from closed to fully stable overnight. Instead, the market is more likely to move through a phased recovery process — beginning with limited experimental voyages, gradually expanding capacity, and ultimately depending on sustained improvements in regional security.