After months of escalating trade friction, a significant signal of policy recalibration has emerged within the North American supply chain. Multiple authoritative sources have confirmed that the Canadian federal government is formally reviewing its policy of imposing a 100% surtax on Chinese-made electric vehicles (EVs). This development is not an isolated administrative update but a substantive response to recent diplomatic overtures regarding a "reciprocal resolution"—essentially, a proposal where Canada’s removal of EV tariffs would be met with China lifting its countermeasures on Canadian canola, pork, and seafood products.

Previously, Canada maintained a trade posture in strict lockstep with the United States. However, at the execution level, this alignment failed to secure the anticipated economic immunities or exemptions for Ottawa. Instead, as retaliatory measures from China took effect, Canada’s western canola industry and eastern seafood processing sectors faced severe economic headwinds. Furthermore, with the new U.S. administration signaling a "universal tariff" approach, Ottawa has recognized that political alignment alone cannot insulate its economy from the pressures of the USMCA framework. Faced with intense lobbying from domestic agricultural groups and blocked export channels, the Canadian government is now seeking a more pragmatic equilibrium to protect its core export interests.

For the international logistics and supply chain sector, this potential policy relaxation signals a structural shift in cargo flows. If a mutual tariff exemption is reached, we anticipate immediate impacts across two key verticals.

First, the export of bulk agricultural commodities is poised for a rebound. Canola, acting as the ballast of Sino-Canadian trade, would see the removal of prohibitive trade barriers, likely triggering a rapid release of accumulated inventory from Vancouver and Prince Rupert. This would drive a short-term surge in demand for bulk carrier capacity. Simultaneously, the cold chain logistics sector would see a normalization of volumes for pork and seafood exports.

Second, the automotive supply chain may witness the reopening of a critical corridor. Should the 100% surtax be rescinded, Canada could become the primary—and perhaps only—viable entry point for Chinese new energy vehicles into the North American market. Unlike the strictly closed U.S. market, a more open Canadian policy would generate fresh demand for RO-RO (Roll-on/Roll-off) shipping capacity and potentially reshape the regional automotive logistics landscape.